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    無(wú)論我到哪里,關(guān)于我們行業(yè)的主要話題之一都是圍繞經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)以及今年是否會(huì)比去年更好的話題展開。
     在美國(guó)，在墨西哥，在中國(guó)，無(wú)一例外， 在大部分的會(huì)議，宴會(huì)等場(chǎng)合都會(huì)被問(wèn)到這些同樣的問(wèn)題，美國(guó)市場(chǎng)會(huì)變得更好嗎？中國(guó)市場(chǎng)今年會(huì)比去年更好嗎？
     我想如果我們能夠清楚知道答案的話，做事情和做決定會(huì)變得輕松很多。但不幸的是，我所認(rèn)識(shí)的人里面沒(méi)有誰(shuí)可以預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)。
     中國(guó)新年期間我到墨西哥和美國(guó)出了個(gè)長(zhǎng)差，剛剛才回來(lái)。我在這些國(guó)家所親眼看到的，所聽到的，將會(huì)在我的報(bào)告里面提及，以及在拉斯維加斯參加的Surfaces陶瓷展上得到的信息都非常的振奮人心。
     數(shù)字很清楚的反映了過(guò)去三年市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)提升，但是還是明顯低于2006年到2008年的黃金年份。好的方面是情況正在持續(xù)變好！
     中國(guó)怎么樣呢？這些對(duì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的影響如何呢？一方面來(lái)說(shuō)這開始緩解中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的銷售壓力。 這就像高壓鍋的壓力閥。 現(xiàn)在壓力是如此之大，一旦美國(guó)以及世界其它國(guó)家的形勢(shì)轉(zhuǎn)好，我們就可以打開這個(gè)氣閥，緩解國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的巨大銷售壓力。
     我沒(méi)有辦法直接了解到中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)陶瓷行業(yè)的細(xì)節(jié)信息，我所知道的是，雖然現(xiàn)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)稱不上火熱，但至少是溫暖的，而美國(guó)以及世界其它地方還處于低迷的狀態(tài)，等待回暖。
     中國(guó)是一個(gè)如此巨大的市場(chǎng)，哪怕陶瓷出口量不能與過(guò)去相比，但是國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)仍舊可以基本消化所有的瓷磚產(chǎn)量。然而卻導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，廠家為了走量而提出低價(jià)。很多情況下，給那些不能依靠走量和低價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的企業(yè)帶來(lái)了負(fù)面影響，導(dǎo)致不得不關(guān)閉或者被其它行業(yè)巨頭吞掉。
     當(dāng)然也因?yàn)檫@些因素，在過(guò)去的兩年里面，產(chǎn)能和企業(yè)的數(shù)量也有所縮減。
    一位在行業(yè)里面舉足輕重的企業(yè)家曾經(jīng)告訴我， 在困難的時(shí)候，只有兩種公司可以做好：一種是市場(chǎng)占有率很高，能夠通過(guò)走量和低價(jià)來(lái)保護(hù)自己市場(chǎng)的企業(yè)，另一種是那些專注質(zhì)量，設(shè)計(jì)，創(chuàng)新，而不依靠走量和低價(jià)路線的企業(yè)。其中后者的企業(yè)數(shù)量相對(duì)較少，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈程度相對(duì)較低，而且它們所面臨的銷售的壓力也較小。一般來(lái)說(shuō)這些企業(yè)規(guī)模也較小。
     不管怎么說(shuō)，我希望我這篇文章能多少闡述我對(duì)于當(dāng)前形勢(shì)以及今年是否能夠比去年更好的看法。
     我想用這樣的觀點(diǎn)收尾：預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的最好方式是去創(chuàng)造未來(lái)。我們應(yīng)該通過(guò)努力工作讓事情變得更好，更簡(jiǎn)單，更有效率，而不應(yīng)該為未來(lái)過(guò)于擔(dān)憂。
     如果你堅(jiān)持把事情做好的話，那么沒(méi)有太多值得你去擔(dān)憂的。
     沒(méi)有哪個(gè)魔鬼可以橫行一個(gè)世紀(jì)！

Most everywhere I go one of the main topics of discussion of our industry is related to the economy and if the current year is going to be better than last one.
In USA, Mexico, in China, no exceptions, the same questions are asked in most meetings, dinners, etc. Is the USA market getting better? Is the Chinese Ceramic market going to be better this year than last?
I guess if we knew clearly the answers then things and decisions would be a lot easier. But unfortunately nobody yet that I know of can predict the future!
I just came back from a long trip that I did during Chinese New Year to Mexico and USA. What I saw in these countries, the feedback that I received, the reports that were given to me, the ceramic fair that I attended in Las Vegas (Surfaces) were very encouraging.
The numbers clearly reflect an improvement from year to year for the past 3 years in a row, but still significantly below the golden years of 2006 to 2008. The good thing is that it just keeps getting better!
How about China? How does that affect the Chinese domestic market? In one way it starts relieving the stress of having to sell more in China. It is like a pressure valve of a pressure cooker. It is so stressed that if things get better in USA and the rest of the world you can open the valve and release some of the huge pressure of having to sell almost everything in the domestic market.
I do not have direct access to a lot of the detailed information related to the domestic Chinese Ceramic Industry. All I know is that in China things may not be hot but they are still warm while in USA or the rest of the world are still kind of cold but they are starting to warm up.
China is such a big market that can almost absorb all the ceramic production supply of all the local manufacturers even if the domestic manufacturers can no longer export as much as before. But what this causes is internal battles that are mostly fought with pricing and the need to sell volume with significantly lower pricing. And in many cases this situation leads to negative effects to many companies that can simply not compete with volume & pricing and eventually have to close or be absorbed by the giants of the industry.
Definitely there was some consolidation of capacity and number of companies due to this matter during the past two years.
I was told by one of the most important ceramic industry businessman that in this difficult years there were only two kind of companies that were doing well: The ones that have a good market share and protect this by selling volume with lower prices and the other were companies that focus more on quality, design and innovation and definitely not on volume or pricing. But the second type of companies the number is much lower and there is less competition and maybe a little less stress or pressure to sell. Usually the companies are smaller as well.
Anyway, I hope that the article explains somehow my point of view about the current situation and if this year is going to be better than last.
I would like to end by saying that the best way to predict the future is by creating it. We worry too much about the future instead on working hard to make things better, different, simpler, more efficient.
If you just keep doing things well, then there is not much you have to worry about!
There is no evil that can last more than a hundred years!